Two seasons ago the Oakland Athletics reemerged as a baseball powerhouse thanks to what might be the game's best infield. Matt Olson has blossomed into a power-hitting Gold Glover at first base and Marcus Semien has made tremendous strides the last few years, so much so that he finished third in the AL MVP voting last season.
Anchoring that infield is third baseman Matt Chapman, whose arrival coincided perfectly with the team's return to prominence. The A's won 69 games in 2016, called Chapman up in June 2017 and won 75 games that year, then broke out with 97 wins and an AL Wild Card Game berth in 2018. Chapman finished seventh in the AL MVP voting that season. He finished sixth last year.
Chapman turned 27 last week and his all-around game is among the best in baseball. He's a career .257/.341/.500 hitter in parts of three MLB seasons -- that is 27 percent better than average once adjusted for ballpark -- and he carries an elite glove. Chapman leads all players with 79 defensive runs saved since Opening Day 2017 and remember, he wasn't called up until that June.
- Matt Chapman, Athletics: +79 defensive runs saved from 2017-19
- Andrelton Simmons, Angels: +75
- Mookie Betts, Red Sox: +63
- Nick Ahmed, Diamondbacks: +52
- Aaron Judge, Yankees: +45
As good as Chapman is, he is not without his flaws. He's a pull heavy hitter who is prone to the shift (even as a righty), and he doesn't add much value on the bases, either with steals or extra bases taken. We're nitpicking his game given how much he provides at the plate and in the field, but Chapman has some weaknesses. He's not perfect. No one is.
Last season Chapman came out of the gate extremely well, hitting .272/.358/.553 with 21 homers in 84 games through June 30. He slowed down after that, mustering a .221/.322/.449 batting line with 15 homers in 72 games after June 30. That's not truly awful, but it's not nearly as good as the first 84 games. The final three months of the season were a grind.
"It's baseball. If I had a better idea, I'd have already fixed it, but I've just been inconsistent in the second half in general," Chapman told reporters, including the San Francisco Chronicle's Susan Slusser, last September. "... Guys are pitching me tough. I just have to keep making my adjustments and shorten my swing up a little bit. It's getting long."
Chapman has been a low ball hitter throughout his career and that was especially true last season. He hit .175 with a .400 slugging percentage on pitches in the upper third of the strike zone in 2019. The MLB averages were .250 and .466, respectively. On pitches in the lower two-thirds of the zone, Chapman hit .309 and slugged .639. The MLB averages were .303 and .539 respectively.
Expected weighted on-base average, or xwOBA, is scaled to on-base percentage and it tells what a hitter is expected to produce on batted balls based on the exit velocity and launch angle, things like that. Chapman did by far the most damage on pitches down in the zone last season. He also had his highest swing-and-miss rates (Whiff %) against pitches up in the zone.
Following his sluggish finish to last season Chapman went to work on his swing over the winter. "This offseason I tried to just make a few adjustments to simplify my swing. Moving my hands back just a tick, and then just getting myself into the zone a little earlier, giving myself more opportunity and more room for error with my swing," he told the San Francisco Chronicle's Matt Kawahara in spring training.
"He doesn't want to travel forward, and sometimes when his hands get too close to his head, he'll travel forward to create separation," hitting coach Darren Bush told Kawahara. "So moving him back a little bit kind of minimizes how much movement he actually has before he goes and puts him in better position to deliver his swing."
Chapman went 5 for 21 (.238) with two home runs during Cactus League play prior to the shutdown. For a player like him, spring training results are largely irrelevant. How's he feel? How's his timing? That's the important stuff. Given his weakness at the top of the zone and his adjustments, it's at least somewhat noteworthy Chapman went deep on an elevated heater in the spring.
That's a belt high fastball -- a belt high Walker Buehler fastball at that -- and these days the belt qualifies as the top of the strike zone. Chapman hit 36 home runs last season but only five came on fastballs in the upper third of the zone. Anytime he does it, it's notable. That he did it after making some swing adjustments demands our attention.
The high fastball is in vogue these days. The Astros popularized high velocity, high spin fastballs up in the zone because they are extremely effective at generating weak contact and swings and misses. Last season 15.7 percent of all fastballs were in the upper third of the strike zone, the highest in the pitch tracking era. So much of the game takes place at the top of the zone now.
Chapman does not need to become a dominant hitter against elevated pitches to be a star. He already is a star. He's a brilliant defender and such a good low ball hitter that it makes up for the hole at the top of the zone. That said, a little adjustment to give him a better chance in the top of the zone is the kind of thing that can take him from star to superstar, and give him more staying power.
Baseball is currently on hiatus and Chapman had to hit pause on his adjustment, like every other player. Making an adjustment is not always as simple as flipping a switch. They often require repetition and reps are not available at the moment. Once baseball returns, Chapman's approach against pitches at the top of the zone will be worth monitoring. If the adjustment takes, he could take his game to yet another level.
"It wasn't anything drastic. My swing's my swing," Chapman told Kawahara. "It's just a few things to key on and focus to help me feel more comfortable and more confident. When you're facing that Astros pitching staff it seems like every other series, you'd better be simple."
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Why this minor tweak could help Matt Chapman become an even more devastating hitter - CBS Sports
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